Royals’ busy offseason signifies nothing
By BRADFORD DOOLITTLE
SportsRadioKC.com
The critical eyes fixed on the performance of Royals general manager Dayton Moore nearly popped out last summer after Moore acquired shortstop Yuniesky Betancourt from the Mariners.
The move was seen as a microcosm of the kinds of mistakes that Moore has made time and again since taking over in KC. Too often, he seems to rely too much on what his scouts tell him a player might be able to do, rather than adequately weighing the record of what a player has already done.
Some of this criticism is unfair. Royals fans have already grown tired of hearing it, but the fact of the matter is that rebuilding a talent-barren organization takes time. Moore took over the Royals on May 31, 2006, with promises of building a top-flight minor-league operation built on a foundation of quality pitching. That's the old Braves blueprint to which he turns over and over. It's taken awhile, but most analysts of young talent agree that the Royals have as good a collection of young pitching talent as any organization in baseball.
Unfortunately, the vast majority of those young talents will be plying its collective trade in places other than Kauffman Stadium this summer. Meanwhile, the continued struggles of the big-league club have left Royals fans with a patience meter about ready to expire. During the three full seasons that Moore has been at the helm, only the Nationals, Pirates and Orioles have lost more games than the Royals. You have to look real hard to see the improvement.
Moore's strategy this offseason was to plug holes on the big-league roster without blocking the opportunity for any young player that might break through. He's caught in the unenviable position of trying to improve the big-league roster while buying time for his young talent to climb the ladder. Of course, you could argue that the task would be made easier if some of Moore's past acquisitions had worked out better. Nevertheless, the Royals have a lot of flexibility moving forward. There is very little money committed beyond next season, which should allow Moore the opportunity to fill out his roster with low-cost role players to fit around his hopefully-emergent young core.
The strategy is sound. There is no reason for the Royals, given their current position, to be doling out expensive, long-term contracts to veteran players. The execution of that strategy, which will determine what sort of team the Royals are able to field in 2010, could have been better, could have been worse. My overarching concern is that it's still not evident that Moore is valuing the right things when it comes to evaluating veteran talent.
In a nutshell, I buy into the idea that young players should be primarily evaluated from a traditional scouting standpoint, though you certainly augment those evaluations with performance data. However, veteran players should be evaluated by performance record, with THOSE evaluations augmented by traditional scouting techniques. To me, it seems like Moore still has this the other way around, and this isn’t something like to ever change. Honestly, there are few organizations that weigh performance/scouting in the manner that I'd like to see, so Moore isn't alone. However, he could get so much further ahead by giving more weight to the reports of his quantitative analysts.
OFFENSE
Only the Mariners scored fewer runs per game than the Royals last season, so you'd think there was nowhere to go but up, but that hasn't always been the case when it comes to the Royals. The lineup will feature Scott Podsednik, Rick Ankiel and Jason Kendall in the spots formerly occupied by Mark Teahen, Mitch Maier and Miguel Olivo. The Royals will hope for a healthy and resurgent season from Alex Gordon, while Jose Guillen will become the primary DH in place of Mike Jacobs. There is also the possibility that the Royals' second-best offensive player last season, Alberto Callaspo, will move into a super-utility role in favor of Chris Getz, who could take over at second base.
In the end, look for nothing much to change other than the names in the lineup. Kendall's offensive value fell off a cliff about five years ago, leaving him in the lowest circle of offensive hell normally reserved for Royals shortstops. Ankiel has power, but doesn't help the Royals' deficiency in on-base percentage. Podsednik's perceived strengths--speed and defense--are vastly overstated when it comes to baseball production, and even his solid on-base skills last season were inflated by an unsustainable batting average. As always, the key to any offensive improvement from the Royals will come from within. Namely, Billy Butler needs to turn about a dozen of his doubles into homers and Gordon needs to become the player he was drafted to become.
Baseball Prospectus is currently projecting the Royals' offense to put up 728 runs this season, a modest improvement over last season, but still the third-worst total in the American League. The main culprit will again prove to be the lack of walks and, thus, on-base percentage. It's an old refrain at this point. Here's one reason why on-base percentage is so important: Because of their advantage in on-base percentage (and thus fewer outs and more times turning the lineup over), the Yankees have 863 more regular-season plate appearances than the Royals over the last three seasons. Forget about all the extra power, on-base skills give you more chances to score. (GRADE: D+)
DEFENSE
The infield defense could hardly be worse, but it would only likely be better if Getz wins the second base job, which would weaken the offense. Gordon, if healthy, could be a significant upgrade over the defense the Royals got from Mark Teahen at third base last season, but that's not certain. What seems certain is that Betancourt is one of the game's worst defensive shortstops, gets worse every year and is at an age where he's very unlikely to get better. Cross your fingers that Mike Aviles comes back healthy and strong and that, if he does, Trey Hillman summons the courage to sit KC's overpaid starting shortstop. (Aviles is not expected to be ready for Opening Day and will be hard-pressed to earn a roster spot.)
In the outfield, the Royals have three potentially competent defenders in David DeJesus, Ankiel and Podsednik. DeJesus has proven to be a capable center fielder in the past and had an excellent season in left field last season. Ankiel has played a lot of center field, but his range and power arm seem much better suited to right field. Podsednik's raw speed has never translated to defense in center field and his arm is not strong enough for right field, so left would seem to be his best spot. Well, one out of three ain't bad. (Actually, it is.) The Royals plan to begin the season with DeJesus in right and Ankiel in center.
Behind the plate, Kendall's ability to handle pitchers better be off the chart, because his throwing skills are almost nil. Given Kendall’s deficiencies in this area and his weak bat, it would not be at all surprising to see Brayan Pena end up with well over half the playing time at catcher. (GRADE: C-)
PITCHING
Moore made an excellent start at building the 2010 staff by not trading AL Cy Young winner Zack Greinke. You'd expect a natural regression from Greinke after his amazing 2009 campaign, but frankly, it wouldn't be a huge surprise if Greinke just keeps rolling right along. The starting rotation as a whole will remain intact over last season, with Luke Hochevar and Kyle Davies providing the greatest hopes for an upgrade if they can continue their development. Gil Meche will try to regain his form (and health) and Brian Bannister will remain steady, if healthy. (You can apply the 'if healthy' tag to every pitcher in baseball.) As with almost any starting rotation, there are a lot of variables, but on paper, the Royals' starting group is much more solid than you'd expect from a perennial last-place contender.
That statement holds true for the closer's role, where Joakim Soria continues his ascension as one of the game's best relief pitchers. If healthy, Soria gives the bullpen a tremendous foundation. Soria's injuries last season limited him to 53 innings, in which he still managed 30 saves. However, Royals manager Trey Hillman is going to have to figure out to get more leverage out of the star righty.
With the two main components of the Royals' pitching staff pretty much set, Moore was faced this offseason with the primary task of restocking a middle relief corp that was disastrous for most of last season. There are a plethora of options to fill these roles--Juan Cruz, Kyle Farnsworth, Matt Herges, Robinson Tejeda (who gives the Royals insurance as a spot starter), Carlos Rosa, et al. It's anybody's guess who is going to end up bridging the gap between the starters and Soria. Cruz and Farnsworth could both bounce back from their poor seasons, or one of them could, or neither. Farnsworth is being tried as a starter. That's the nature of relief pitching. All in all, you have to give Moore credit for not once again falling into the trap of throwing money at holes in the bullpen. It's almost always a recipe for disaster. (GRADE:
OVERALL
All in all, I'd give Moore a 'C' for his offseason. This year's team will likely be better than last season, but that's mostly because of improvements from within and the probability of better luck. The Royals are not going to contend and it'd take a minor miracle to make a run at .500. However, Moore gets some credit for not mortgaging the future by overpaying veterans that would only be in the way in a couple of years. It's another rebuilding season in KC. It's not what fans want to hear, but that's the reality of the situation at The K. Moore has his eyes on 2011 and beyond. That's exactly where they should be pointed.
SportsRadioKC.com
The critical eyes fixed on the performance of Royals general manager Dayton Moore nearly popped out last summer after Moore acquired shortstop Yuniesky Betancourt from the Mariners.
The move was seen as a microcosm of the kinds of mistakes that Moore has made time and again since taking over in KC. Too often, he seems to rely too much on what his scouts tell him a player might be able to do, rather than adequately weighing the record of what a player has already done.
Some of this criticism is unfair. Royals fans have already grown tired of hearing it, but the fact of the matter is that rebuilding a talent-barren organization takes time. Moore took over the Royals on May 31, 2006, with promises of building a top-flight minor-league operation built on a foundation of quality pitching. That's the old Braves blueprint to which he turns over and over. It's taken awhile, but most analysts of young talent agree that the Royals have as good a collection of young pitching talent as any organization in baseball.
Unfortunately, the vast majority of those young talents will be plying its collective trade in places other than Kauffman Stadium this summer. Meanwhile, the continued struggles of the big-league club have left Royals fans with a patience meter about ready to expire. During the three full seasons that Moore has been at the helm, only the Nationals, Pirates and Orioles have lost more games than the Royals. You have to look real hard to see the improvement.
Moore's strategy this offseason was to plug holes on the big-league roster without blocking the opportunity for any young player that might break through. He's caught in the unenviable position of trying to improve the big-league roster while buying time for his young talent to climb the ladder. Of course, you could argue that the task would be made easier if some of Moore's past acquisitions had worked out better. Nevertheless, the Royals have a lot of flexibility moving forward. There is very little money committed beyond next season, which should allow Moore the opportunity to fill out his roster with low-cost role players to fit around his hopefully-emergent young core.
The strategy is sound. There is no reason for the Royals, given their current position, to be doling out expensive, long-term contracts to veteran players. The execution of that strategy, which will determine what sort of team the Royals are able to field in 2010, could have been better, could have been worse. My overarching concern is that it's still not evident that Moore is valuing the right things when it comes to evaluating veteran talent.
In a nutshell, I buy into the idea that young players should be primarily evaluated from a traditional scouting standpoint, though you certainly augment those evaluations with performance data. However, veteran players should be evaluated by performance record, with THOSE evaluations augmented by traditional scouting techniques. To me, it seems like Moore still has this the other way around, and this isn’t something like to ever change. Honestly, there are few organizations that weigh performance/scouting in the manner that I'd like to see, so Moore isn't alone. However, he could get so much further ahead by giving more weight to the reports of his quantitative analysts.
OFFENSE
Only the Mariners scored fewer runs per game than the Royals last season, so you'd think there was nowhere to go but up, but that hasn't always been the case when it comes to the Royals. The lineup will feature Scott Podsednik, Rick Ankiel and Jason Kendall in the spots formerly occupied by Mark Teahen, Mitch Maier and Miguel Olivo. The Royals will hope for a healthy and resurgent season from Alex Gordon, while Jose Guillen will become the primary DH in place of Mike Jacobs. There is also the possibility that the Royals' second-best offensive player last season, Alberto Callaspo, will move into a super-utility role in favor of Chris Getz, who could take over at second base.
In the end, look for nothing much to change other than the names in the lineup. Kendall's offensive value fell off a cliff about five years ago, leaving him in the lowest circle of offensive hell normally reserved for Royals shortstops. Ankiel has power, but doesn't help the Royals' deficiency in on-base percentage. Podsednik's perceived strengths--speed and defense--are vastly overstated when it comes to baseball production, and even his solid on-base skills last season were inflated by an unsustainable batting average. As always, the key to any offensive improvement from the Royals will come from within. Namely, Billy Butler needs to turn about a dozen of his doubles into homers and Gordon needs to become the player he was drafted to become.
Baseball Prospectus is currently projecting the Royals' offense to put up 728 runs this season, a modest improvement over last season, but still the third-worst total in the American League. The main culprit will again prove to be the lack of walks and, thus, on-base percentage. It's an old refrain at this point. Here's one reason why on-base percentage is so important: Because of their advantage in on-base percentage (and thus fewer outs and more times turning the lineup over), the Yankees have 863 more regular-season plate appearances than the Royals over the last three seasons. Forget about all the extra power, on-base skills give you more chances to score. (GRADE: D+)
DEFENSE
The infield defense could hardly be worse, but it would only likely be better if Getz wins the second base job, which would weaken the offense. Gordon, if healthy, could be a significant upgrade over the defense the Royals got from Mark Teahen at third base last season, but that's not certain. What seems certain is that Betancourt is one of the game's worst defensive shortstops, gets worse every year and is at an age where he's very unlikely to get better. Cross your fingers that Mike Aviles comes back healthy and strong and that, if he does, Trey Hillman summons the courage to sit KC's overpaid starting shortstop. (Aviles is not expected to be ready for Opening Day and will be hard-pressed to earn a roster spot.)
In the outfield, the Royals have three potentially competent defenders in David DeJesus, Ankiel and Podsednik. DeJesus has proven to be a capable center fielder in the past and had an excellent season in left field last season. Ankiel has played a lot of center field, but his range and power arm seem much better suited to right field. Podsednik's raw speed has never translated to defense in center field and his arm is not strong enough for right field, so left would seem to be his best spot. Well, one out of three ain't bad. (Actually, it is.) The Royals plan to begin the season with DeJesus in right and Ankiel in center.
Behind the plate, Kendall's ability to handle pitchers better be off the chart, because his throwing skills are almost nil. Given Kendall’s deficiencies in this area and his weak bat, it would not be at all surprising to see Brayan Pena end up with well over half the playing time at catcher. (GRADE: C-)
PITCHING
Moore made an excellent start at building the 2010 staff by not trading AL Cy Young winner Zack Greinke. You'd expect a natural regression from Greinke after his amazing 2009 campaign, but frankly, it wouldn't be a huge surprise if Greinke just keeps rolling right along. The starting rotation as a whole will remain intact over last season, with Luke Hochevar and Kyle Davies providing the greatest hopes for an upgrade if they can continue their development. Gil Meche will try to regain his form (and health) and Brian Bannister will remain steady, if healthy. (You can apply the 'if healthy' tag to every pitcher in baseball.) As with almost any starting rotation, there are a lot of variables, but on paper, the Royals' starting group is much more solid than you'd expect from a perennial last-place contender.
That statement holds true for the closer's role, where Joakim Soria continues his ascension as one of the game's best relief pitchers. If healthy, Soria gives the bullpen a tremendous foundation. Soria's injuries last season limited him to 53 innings, in which he still managed 30 saves. However, Royals manager Trey Hillman is going to have to figure out to get more leverage out of the star righty.
With the two main components of the Royals' pitching staff pretty much set, Moore was faced this offseason with the primary task of restocking a middle relief corp that was disastrous for most of last season. There are a plethora of options to fill these roles--Juan Cruz, Kyle Farnsworth, Matt Herges, Robinson Tejeda (who gives the Royals insurance as a spot starter), Carlos Rosa, et al. It's anybody's guess who is going to end up bridging the gap between the starters and Soria. Cruz and Farnsworth could both bounce back from their poor seasons, or one of them could, or neither. Farnsworth is being tried as a starter. That's the nature of relief pitching. All in all, you have to give Moore credit for not once again falling into the trap of throwing money at holes in the bullpen. It's almost always a recipe for disaster. (GRADE:
OVERALL
All in all, I'd give Moore a 'C' for his offseason. This year's team will likely be better than last season, but that's mostly because of improvements from within and the probability of better luck. The Royals are not going to contend and it'd take a minor miracle to make a run at .500. However, Moore gets some credit for not mortgaging the future by overpaying veterans that would only be in the way in a couple of years. It's another rebuilding season in KC. It's not what fans want to hear, but that's the reality of the situation at The K. Moore has his eyes on 2011 and beyond. That's exactly where they should be pointed.
Posted by Bradford Doolittle at 2/26/2010 8:29 AM 
Categories: Royals
Tags: Royals grades Rick Ankiel Royals Bradford Doolittle baseball Royals offseason Jason Kendall
Categories: Royals
Tags: Royals grades Rick Ankiel Royals Bradford Doolittle baseball Royals offseason Jason Kendall
Comments