By BRADFORD DOOLITTLE
SportsRadioKC.com

The fun has started at the Sprint Center. As Big 12 hoops fans pour in and the crowds in and around the Power & Light District swell, we're again be reminded why we wanted the arena built in the first place. The games will be well attended. Fans will be passionate. It's the conference tournament in Kansas City--back where it's meant to be.

So what can we expect in the days ahead? Glad you asked. I always tell people who ask why I spend so much time messing with statistics this: I like to know when to be surprised. That is, I like to establish a baseline of expectation because it enhances my enjoyment of the games themselves. Knowledge is never a bad idea. This works two ways. If I know that Oklahoma State has a 1.1 percent chance to win the Big 12 tournament--and it happens--then not only will that be a great story, but I'll know just how great it is. At the other end of the spectrum, if I know sixth-seeded Texas actually has a 54 percent chance to beat fourth-seeded Texas A&M on a neutral floor, and then it happens, I know to just shrug my shoulders.

So before every Big 12 tournament, and every NCAA Tournament, I plug a bunch of numbers into my computer and run a simulation of the games 1,000 times. The results give me a firm idea of the odds of each team winning the tournament. So with that established, here are the results of my 1,000 simulations of the 2010 Big 12 Men's Basketball Tournament.

Wins            AvgW  %Title
Kansas          2.29    58.0
Kansas State    1.26    12.6
Baylor          0.94    10.1
Texas A&M       0.65     3.8
Missouri        1.52     5.1
Texas           1.52     9.0
Oklahoma State  1.10     1.1
Colorado        0.59     0.2
Texas Tech      0.48     0.0
Oklahoma        0.26     0.0
Iowa State      0.25     0.1
Nebraska        0.15     0.0

I gave Kansas half-credit for homecourt advantage for its games. From studies, we know they deserve an added advantage, but we don't know just how much. We know it's not the same as the Jayhawks' edge at Allen Fieldhouse, but it's something. Along those lines, I gave Mizzou 40 percent of a homecourt advantage and K-State 30 percent. Again, these are estimates, but I think the results are better than they'd be than if I treated every game as a neutral site encounter.

It's no surprise that KU projects as an overwhelming favorite, winning 580 of my 1,000 simulations. Last season, KU also was the favorite in my simulations, but only won 33.8 percent of them. This is a much stronger Jayhawk team and no matter what happens in Kansas City, Bill Self's deepest team has a great chance of entering the NCAA Tournament as the No. 1 overall seed. By the way, Kansas and Missouri met 206 times in my simulations. Kansas won 148 of those encounters. I would have actually expected it to be worse for the Tigers.

Now that we've established our baseline of expectation for the next few days, let's look at what's at stake for each team.

Kansas: Probably not much on the line for KU in this tournament in terms of NCAA seed, but that's not to say the event means nothing for the Jayhawks. First of all, given the overwhelming favorite's status for KU, it would be a letdown for the Jayhawks if they don't win the tournament in front of the largely partisan crowd. Also, Self wants to get his team running on all cylinders with the NCAAs looming directly ahead. In particular, he needs to get Cole Aldrich, who has struggled with his shooting lately, producing at an optimal level.

Kansas State: No team in the tournament has more to play for than the Wildcats. First of all, K-State enters the tournament on a two-game losing streak, so Frank Martin would like to get his team pointed in the right direction for the NCAAs. Second, with a big weekend in KC, along with some flops by teams like Duke, West Virginia and Purdue in their respective conferences, it's still possible the Wildcats could land a second No. 1 seed for the Big 12. However, if the mini-slump continues and the Wildcats flop on Thursday, it's possible KSU could play itself out of what looks like a surefire No. 2 seed.

Baylor: ESPN's Joe Lunardi currently has the Bears slotted as a No. 4 seed in the NCAAs, which may be giving Scott Drew's exciting squad the short end of the stick. Baylor's power indicators and No. 8 standing in the RPI screams for at least a three-seed, and maybe a two. The Bears could turn a lot of heads by running the table in KC. It's always tough for the Texas teams when the tournament is in the North, but with the firepower Baylor has in LaceDarius Dunn and Tweety Carter, along with the dominating inside presence of Ekpe Udoh, the Bears can win anywhere.

Texas A&M: Not much for the Aggies to play for, well except for the prestige of winning a major conference tournament. A&M coach Mark Turgeon would like to show KC-area fans how well he's doing since he left the friendly faces of Kansas. A&M is currently slotted as a fifth-seed in the tournament and, given its RPI and standing as the fourth-place team in the nation's high-rated conference, a good run this week could bump them up to a four. Thing is, there is almost no material difference between a four- and a five-seed in the NCAA Tournament. Could Texas A&M move up to a three if it runs the table? Perhaps.

Missouri: The Tigers are still penciled in as a lock in most tournament projections, though I frankly have a hard time understanding why this is the case. Mizzou went through its entire schedule without a big-time road win and is 1-7 against teams ranked in the top 25 of the RPI. So while the pundits may take the Tigers' tourney fortunes for granted, astute Mizzou fans would feel a lot better with a win or two in Kansas City. Mizzou may be off the bubble, but a first-round upset against 12th-seed Nebraska could put the Tigers back on it.

Texas: The Longhorns are simply trying to get back to the level of play that pushed them to a 17-0 start and a stint as the No. 1 team in the nation. Texas became the first team in seven years to go from No. 1 to unranked in the same season, and Rick Barnes' squad needed less than two months to complete the fall. Texas barely beat its first-round opponent--Iowa State--when the teams squared off in Ames. Given the rabid following that always accompanies the Cyclones to Kansas City, the Longhorns better be ready to answer the bell from the start.

Oklahoma State: The Cowboys have won five of seven down the stretch and are generally considered to be safe bets to advance to the NCAAs. However, as the seventh-seed, if a team is going to be left out--OSU might be the best candidate to get the shaft. So Travis Ford will have his team motivated. It's not an easy draw for the Cowboys, who face in-state rival Oklahoma in the first round. The Sooners have been the conference's most disappointing team and a nice run in the Big 12 Tournament could partially salvage OU's lost season.

Colorado: The Buffaloes have some offensive talent in Cory Higgins and Alec Burks and the Buffs need a win to cement a bid to the NIT. Colorado struggles on defense, but has a favorable first-round matchup with Texas Tech, which isn't too adept at putting the ball in the basket. The Buffs won their last three game of the regular season against Iowa State, Nebraska and the Red Raiders, so Jeff Bzdelik's team enters the postseason on an upswing. The key for CU to make a splash is rebounding--the Buffaloes are one of the nation's poorest rebounding teams on both ends of the floor.

Texas Tech: Like Colorado, the Red Raiders are on the NIT bubble, but even a win over the Buffs might not be enough to save Pat Knight's team. Texas Tech enters the tournament on a seven-game losing streak, quite a fall for a team that was once 9-0 and ranked in the national polls. Tech would be a lot more successful with a more versatile offense, but like his father, Knight runs an offense that yields a lot of two-point jump shots. There is no better formula in contemporary college basketball for inefficient offense than a scheme that features two-point jump shots.

Oklahoma: The Sooners are not just the most disappointing team in the Big 12, they may be the most disappointing team in the nation. The Sooners were picked third by the media in the Big 12's preseason poll and were ranked No. 17 by the AP in the first national poll of the season. They featured a player in Willie Warren who projects as an NBA lottery pick and who was a leading candidate for Big 12 Player of the Year honors. Instead, OU went 4-12 in conference and enters the tournament on an eight-game losing streak. That's the school's longest skid in 41 years.

Iowa State: It's been a painful season for the Cyclones, who have lost six conference games by five points or less. Iowa State finished its regular season with an overtime win over Kansas State in Manhattan, which you have to feel was a well-deserved victory for Greg McDermott's squad. The Cyclones may be a dangerous team in Kansas City. They face a terribly inconsistent team in Texas that has proven capable of turning out a dud on any given day. If the Cyclones knock off the Longhorns, they then face a talented Baylor squad playing a long way from home. If there is a Cinderella team in Kansas City this week, it might be the Cyclones.

Nebraska: The Huskers enter the conference tournament with low, low expectations. Nebraska has some young talent on hand, but Doc Sadler's club lacks firepower. Because of that, Sadler preaches a slow, slow attack and a lot of ball movement that might look great on film at a coach's camp, but doesn't play so well on television. You got to do what you got to do. Nebraska has no postseason hopes, so they could make their week with a first-round upset over Mizzou. The Tigers beat the Huskers twice during the regular season, but the Tigers always have a hard time with Sadler's schemes.